Fears of a potential recession are back in the headlines, and if you’ve been thinking about buying or selling a home, you might be second-guessing your timing.

A recent survey conducted by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) in collaboration with Keeping Current Matters (KCM) found that 68% of people are postponing their real estate plans due to economic uncertainty.

But here’s where things look more promising than you might think. Not everyone is holding off because they’re worried—many are waiting with optimism. According to Realtor.com:

“In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8%) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”

There is some historical data to back up that hopeful mindset. Mortgage rates have a strong tendency to decline during economic slowdowns. While nothing is guaranteed, this pattern has held true for the last six recessions, where mortgage rates dropped each time (see graph below).

However, there’s an important detail that many optimistic buyers may not be considering—home prices don’t always follow suit. While lower interest rates may improve affordability, buyers expecting significant price drops may be in for a surprise.

Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows that in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually increased (see graph below).

The steep price declines of 2008 were a rare exception, not the rule. That particular downturn was driven by a housing crisis and oversupply—conditions that aren’t present today. In fact, inventory remains lower than demand in many areas, even with more homes gradually entering the market.

Because of this ongoing inventory shortage, home prices are generally holding steady or continuing to climb—albeit at a slower rate than in recent years. Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, sums it up well:

""Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .""

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting for the “right time” to make your move, hoping a recession might create a buyer’s market, it’s crucial to understand what typically happens during economic slowdowns. Yes, mortgage rates could drop, making financing more affordable. But expecting a major dip in home prices? That’s far less likely based on historical data.

Instead of waiting for a market shift that may never come, consider speaking with a trusted real estate expert. If you're planning to buy or sell, connect with Mike Panza and the team at Panza Home Group to discuss how current market conditions can work in your favor and to create a smart strategy tailored to your goals.

For more details or to reach out, visit: https://panzarealestate.com/team/mike-panza