If you’ve been keeping an eye on real estate news, you’ve likely come across headlines claiming home prices are flat. At first glance, that might seem straightforward—but the reality is much more dynamic and encouraging.

In most markets, prices aren't flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While the dramatic, unsustainable price increases of 2020–2022 have moderated, the current trends vary significantly depending on location.

Looking at data from ResiClub and Zillow across the 50 largest metro areas, it becomes instantly clear: the market is split. Half of these metros are still seeing prices gradually rise, while the other half are experiencing mild declines (see graph below).

So, when you hear “flat,” it doesn’t mean prices are stagnant everywhere. It simply reflects an average of very different local scenarios.

What’s Driving the Difference? Inventory.

One key factor influencing this divide is inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University notes:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When these opposite trends are averaged together, it can appear as if prices are flat nationally—but that doesn’t represent what most markets are actually experiencing. You deserve to know what’s truly happening in your area.

Also, if you’re concerned about price declines, keep in mind that these typically occur in markets where prices surged too quickly in recent years. Over the past five years, home prices have risen approximately 50% nationally—and in some markets, even more. That means that even in areas seeing slight corrections, most homeowners are still in a strong equity position. And the latest expert forecasts don’t point to any significant nationwide price drops ahead.

So, What Does This Mean for You?

If You’re Buying...

Being aware of your local market’s pricing trends can give you a strategic edge. In areas where prices are still climbing, acting sooner rather than later could save you money. In markets where prices are cooling slightly, you may have more room to negotiate—perhaps asking for repairs or seller concessions to enhance your deal.

The key takeaway? Understanding your local market puts you in control and helps you make more informed decisions.

If You’re Selling...

Tuning into your local market’s pricing patterns is equally vital. In markets where prices are trending upward, you might find your home sells quickly with fewer compromises. But in areas where prices are softening, pricing your home accurately from the start and being open to negotiations becomes essential.

The most important step for sellers? Partnering with an experienced local agent. Their insight can help you price your home effectively—because well-priced homes are still selling fast.

The Real Story Is What’s Happening Locally

National numbers provide helpful context, but they don’t tell the whole story. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented… This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why whether you're buying or selling, the smartest move is to rely on a local real estate expert who knows your market inside and out.

Local agents have access to the latest data and understand the subtle shifts happening in your neighborhood. They can guide you through whether prices are on the rise, holding steady, or softening—and help you navigate the market confidently.

Bottom Line

Headlines that claim home prices are flat are often missing the bigger picture. The real story is far more complex—and often more optimistic—than those simplified national averages suggest.

Want to know what’s really going on with prices in your area? Reach out to a local expert who can provide the insights you need to make your next move with confidence.

For personalized guidance and the latest local data, reach out to Mike Panza and the team at Panza Home Group. They’re here to help you understand your market and make your move with confidence.

Learn more or get in touch here: https://panzarealestate.com/team/mike-panza